My totally loony attempt to nail a bracket
My team, the Syracuse Orange, took a self-imposed backseat from last year's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. I decided to do the same. It was a difficult March, but in the long run I thought it was good for me. I could come back stronger, with higher spirits, and more informed to fill out some truly smart brackets this time around. But instead, the Orange turned out to be fantastically mediocre. Despite squeaking into the tournament, I don't feel that great about it, and I wound up tuning out from basketball more than ever before.But rather than languish in my failed objective, I've decided to take matter into my own hands. By taking the matter out of my hands entirely! Now if you're worried I'm truly suffering from March Madness and about to construct my bracket entirely on coin flips, have no fear. My plan is slightly more intricate than that. But only slightly.
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| Heads, we take Florida Gulf Coast over North Carolina. Tails, we take Fairleigh Dickinson over North Carolina. |
Here's how it works: Kansas, for instance, is a 92 percent favorite over Austin Peay in their opening game. If you set a range between 1 and 100 on the random number generator, you're truly seeing those odds play out. If the number is 92 or less, we give the nod to Kansas; 93 or more, and we put down Austin Peay for the upset. And if you think this is just a kooky experiment, you're dead wrong. I pledge that, no matter what the results of this simulation I'm about to do, I will pencil it in as one of the handful of brackets I gamble with this year. So without further ado, let's see what happens! Upsets are in bold.
First Four
11) Wichita State 72% vs. 11) Vanderbilt. Draw: 71. Winner: Wichita State (starting out with a squeaker!)
16) Fairleigh Dickinson 52% vs. 16) FGCU. Draw: 63. Winner: FGCU
11) Michigan 51% vs. 11) Tulsa. Draw: 100. Winner: Tulsa
16) Southern 67% vs. 16) Holy Cross. Draw: 78. Winner: Holy Cross
Round of 64
South Region
1) Kansas 92% vs. 16) Austin Peay. Draw: 63. Winner: Kansas
8) Colorado 63% vs. 9) Connecticut. Draw: 9. Winner: Colorado
5) Maryland 67% vs. 12) South Dakota State. Draw: 45. Winner: Maryland
4) California 53% vs. 13) Hawaii. Draw: 12. Winner: California
6) Arizona 57% vs. 11) Wichita State. Draw: 92. Winner: Wichita State
3) Miami 89% vs. 14) Buffalo. Draw: 6. Winner: Miami
7) Iowa 73% vs. 10) Temple. Draw: 28. Winner: Iowa
2) Villanova 86% vs. UNC Asheville. Draw: 19. Winner: Villanova
West Region
1) Oregon 95% vs. 16) Holy Cross. Draw: 73. Winner: Oregon
8) St. Joseph's 51% vs. 9) Cincinnati. Draw: 8. Winner: St. Joseph's
5) Baylor 63% vs. 12) Yale. Draw: 22. Winner: Baylor
4) Duke 59% vs. UNC-Wilmington. Draw: 91. Winner: UNC-Wilmington (and the madness begins!)
6) Texas 60% vs. 11) Northern Iowa. Draw: 72. Winner: Northern Iowa
3) Texas A&M 74% vs. 14) Green Bay. Draw: 32. Winner: Texas A&M
10) VCU 65% vs. 7) Oregon State. Draw: 69. Winner Oregon State
2) Oklahoma 55% vs. 15) CSU Bakersfield. Draw: 18. Winner: Oklahoma
East Region
1) North Carolina 94% vs. 16) FGCU. Draw: 64. Winner: North Carolina
8) USC 62% vs. 9) Providence. Draw: 14. Winner: USC
12) Chattanooga 52% vs. 5) Indiana. Draw: 11. Winner: Chattanooga
4) Kentucky 60% vs. 13) Stony Brook. Draw: 25. Winner: Kentucky
6) Notre Dame 66% vs. 11) Tulsa. Draw: 87. Winner: Tulsa
3) West Virginia 57% vs. 14) Stephen F. Austin. Draw: 49. Winner: West Virginia
10) Pittsburgh 56% vs. 7) Wisconsin. Draw: 19. Winner: Pittsburgh
2) Xavier 71% vs. 15) Weber State. Draw: 91. Winner: Weber State
Midwest Region
1) Virginia 88% vs. 16) Hampton. Draw: 56. Winner: Virginia
9) Butler 57% vs. 8) Texas Tech. Draw: 29. Winner: Butler
12) Little Rock 55% vs. 5) Purdue. Draw: 22. Winner: Little Rock
4) Iowa State 55% vs. 13) Iona. Draw: 65. Winner: Iona
11) Gonzaga 60% vs. 6) Seton Hall. Draw: 63. Winner: Seton Hall
3) Utah 80% vs. 14) Fresno State. Draw: 2. Winner: Utah
7) Dayton 63% vs. 10) Syracuse. Draw: 36. Winner: Dayton
2) Michigan State 72% vs. Middle Tennessee. Draw: 52. Winner: Michigan State
It seems counter-intuitive based on how many teams represent the B1G. But much like the selection committee, the bracket predictor appears down on the conference. Both five seeds of Indiana and Purdue were both given slight underdog status in their respective games against Chattanooga and Little Rock. Maybe it's an indicator that Michigan isn't the prohibitive favorite everyone believes them to be. Anyway, let's keep this moving!
Round of 32
South Region
1) Kansas 82% vs. 8) Colorado. Draw: 2. Winner: Kansas
4) California 59% vs. 5) Maryland. Draw: 99. Winner: Maryland
3) Miami 51% vs. 11) Wichita State. Draw: 45. Winner: Miami
2) Villanova 83% vs. 7) Iowa. Draw: 52. Winner: Villanova
West Region
1) Oregon 67% vs. 8) St. Joseph's. Draw: 95. Winner: St. Joseph's
13) UNC-Wilmington 56% vs. 5) Baylor. Draw: 61. Winner: Baylor
3) Texas A&M 55% vs. 11) Northern Iowa. Draw: 74. Winner: Northern Iowa
2) Oklahoma 56% vs. 7) Oregon State. Draw: 8. Winner: Oklahoma
East Region
1) North Carolina 74% vs. 8) USC. Draw: 73! Winner: North Carolina
4) Kentucky 75% vs. 12) Chattanooga. Draw: 98. Winner: Chattanooga
3) West Virginia 70% vs. 11) Tulsa. Draw: 60. Winner: West Virginia
10) Pittsburgh 67% vs. 15) Weber State. Draw: 66! Winner: Pittsburgh
Midwest Region
1) Virginia 80% vs. 9) Butler. Draw: 13. Winner: Virginia
12) Little Rock 60% vs. 13) Iona. Draw: 99. Winner: Iona
3) Utah 79% vs. 6) Seton Hall. Draw: 49. Winner: Utah
2) Michigan State 58% vs. 7) Dayton. Draw: 7. Winner: Michigan State
It's the wild, wild West! But other than Oregon losing to St. Joe's, and maybe Kentucky going down to Chattanooga, is there anything all that surprising there? We have nine of the top 12 seeds still in the mix, with just three double-digit seeds mixed in. Call me crazy (seriously you probably should), but I think this is going fairly well!
Sweet 16
1) Kansas 61% vs. 5) Maryland. Draw: 48. Winner: Kansas
3) Miami 54% vs. 2) Villanova. Draw: 95. Winner: Villanova
8) Saint Joseph's 74% vs. 5) Baylor. Draw: 61. Winner: Saint Joseph's
2) Oklahoma 56% vs. 11) Northern Iowa. Draw: 70. Winner: Northern Iowa
1) North Carolina 3% vs. 12) Chattanooga. Draw: 30. Winner: North Carolina
3) West Virginia 53% vs. 10) Pittsburgh. Draw: 9. Winner: West Virginia
1) Virginia 80% vs. 13) Iona. Draw: 33. Winner: Virginia
2) Michigan State 61% vs. 3) Utah. Draw: 52. Winner: Michigan State
Of all the potential later-round rivalry games people have been speculating over, I think it's nice and ironic that another rivalry no one's discussing is the only one that actually materializes here. Pitt-West Virginia would be bananas. It seems off that Saint Joe's would be a 74% favorite against Baylor, but the system argues they're a much more disciplined team, which always proves crucial in making a Cinderella run.
Elite Eight
2) Villanova 73% vs. 1) Kansas. Draw: 81. Winner: Kansas
8) Saint Joseph's 72% vs. 11) Northern Iowa. Draw: 54. Winner: Saint Joseph's
1) North Carolina 62% vs. 3) West Virginia. Draw: 60! Winner: North Carolina
2) Michigan State 60% vs. 1) Virginia. Draw: 86. Winner: Virginia
And there you have your Final Four. Honestly, it's pretty chalky. Sure, the Saint Joe's thing seems a little crazy (especially since I did a practice simulation and they won the whole thing). But would any of you really be that surprised if it all turned out like this? I know I wouldn't.
Final Four
1) Kansas 51% vs. 8) Saint Joseph's. Draw: 37. Winner: Kansas
1) Virginia 54% vs. 1) North Carolina. Draw: 67. Winner: North Carolina
National Championship
1) Kansas 55% vs. 1) North Carolina. Draw: 74. Winner: North Carolina
And there you have it, yet another national championship for the damn Tar Heels. Although the Roy Williams revenge factor would be a nice bit of drama. Now sure, this method borders on insane. But think about how sweet it will feel if it works, and random chaos proves more effective than all the nitwits with whom I enter a pool. I hope it works, and either way we're going to find out.
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