Predicting the Academy Awards

The biggest night in movies is almost upon us, and although the night is often full of smugness and bullshit, it's still fun to watch. This one figures to be particularly interesting, with a number of awards being virtual locks and others being up in the air.

This was Chris Rock in 2005.
Not much has changed 11 years later

Quite honestly, I'm most excited for Chris Rock's monologue. With all the uproar about no black actors, actresses, directors, etc. being nominated for any award and the hashtag #OscarsSoWhite being the overlying theme on Hollywood's greatest night, there is no better person to address this than Rock. His ability to be socially conscious while not being overly aggressive is unmatched in Hollywood, and I have no doubt that he will kill it Sunday.

First, let me say this. Mad Max: Fury Road will sweep all the technical categories, although they may get a run for their money in the Film Editing category by Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Now that we got that out of the way, let's take a look at who I think should take home the hardware in the 88th Academy Awards.

Best Picture:

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
The Martian
The Big Short
Room
Brooklyn

I've seen six of these movies, and to me, this category comes down to three movies: The Revenant, The Big Short, and Spotlight. I think Mad Max is a better movie than The Revenant. But The Revenant was made for awards. The issue is that although I can appreciate the film's incredible qualities, I didn't leave the theater feeling happy. Spotlight, on the other hand, left me speechless. The movie was perfect, and the ensemble of Mark Ruffalo, Michael Keaton, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schrieber, and John Slattery accompanied each other perfectly. Spotlight should win, but I fear The Revenant will. 

Best Actor:

See... I didn't lie

Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne -- The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston -- Trumbo
Matt Damon -- The Martian
Michael Fassbender -- Steve Jobs

This is DiCaprio's to lose. And he won't. DiCaprio will win despite not having the best acting performance in this group. That belongs to Fassbender. His ability to show the faults and vulnerabilities of Steve Jobs was incredible and telling. But DiCaprio got mauled by a bear in The Revenant, and Fassbender didn't. Advantage DiCaprio.

Best Actress:

Brie Larson -- Room
Charlotte Rampling -- 45 Years
Cate Blanchett -- Carol
Saoirse Ronan -- Brooklyn
Jennifer Lawrence -- Joy

Let's put it this way. If Brie Larson doesn't win for her role in Room, it will be an upset for the ages. Everyone fully expects her to win, and so do I.

Best Director:

THERE ARE FLAMES COMING OUT OF
THE GUITAR!!!!!!

George Miller -- Mad Max: Fury Road
Adam McKay -- The Big Short
Lenny Abrahamson -- Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu -- The Revenant
Tom McCarthy -- Spotlight

George Miller reinvented his own franchise (which he didn't need to do) and showed new-age directors how to properly direct a high-octane action movie while also keeping a relatively strong plot line. Alejandro Inarritu is aiming to win back-to-back best director awards after winning it for Birdman last year. After the years of struggles it took to make The Revenant the motion picture it is today, it's incredibly difficult to bet against him, but I'm going to. Mad Max is the best action movie I've seen in years. Miller should win.

Best Supporting Actor:

Mark Ruffalo -- Spotlight
Sylvester Stallone -- Creed
Tom Hardy -- The Revenant
Mark Rylance -- Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale -- The Big Short

This one is just so damn difficult to get a read on. Personally, I thought Tom Hardy was better in The Revenant than DiCaprio. Christian Bale kills it in every role he takes on. Mark Rylance was perfect opposite of Tom Hanks. I have made my feelings clear on Mark Ruffalo, believing that he's the most underrated actor in Hollywood as he routinely stole the show in Spotlight. And then there is Stallone. Sunday night feels like a culmination of a long, successful career for Stallone, and that nostalgia may be too much to pass up. Screw it, I'm going with Ruffalo.

Best Supporting Actress:

Rachel McAdams -- Spotlight
Rooney Mara -- Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh -- The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet -- Steve Jobs
Alicia Vikander -- The Danish Girl

This one comes down to whether or not the Academy will invite a couple of newcomers to the stage or if they decide to choose a stalwart. I think the Academy will go with the latter and name Kate Winslet as the best supporting actress, because the nostalgia of her and DiCaprio winning awards on the same night would be some sight to see.

Best Original Screenplay:

Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, and Matt Charman -- Bridge of Spies
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer -- Spotlight
Alex Garland -- Ex Machina
Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen, and Josh Cooley  -- Inside Out
Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge -- Straight Outta Compton

Easy choice for me. Spotlight was the best movie I've seen in years, and it took on one of the darkest times of the Catholic church's history with tenacity and precision. Ex Machina and Straight Outta Compton deserve some love as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Drew Goddard -- The Martian
Adam McKay and Charles Randolph -- The Big Short
Emma Donoghue -- Room
Phyllis Nagy -- Carol 
Nick Hornby -- Brooklyn

Similar to Spotlight, The Big Short took a subject matter that everyone knew about and dived into the specifics. It wins going away.

Best Cinematography:

Robert Richardson -- The Hateful Eight
Edward Lachman -- Carol
Emmanuel Lubezki -- The Revenant
Roger Deakins -- Sicario
John Seale -- Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant is going to win a lot of awards on Sunday, and here is another one. I actually felt cold watching the movie in the theater, and anytime a cinematographer can achieve that, then they've done something truly special.

Best Original Song:

"Manta Ray" -- Antony Hegarty and J. Ralph
"Earned it" -- The Weeknd
"Writing's on the Wall" -- Sam Smith
"Simple Song #3" -- David Lang
"Til it Happens to You" -- Lady Gaga

Admittedly, I have no idea where to go on this one. But for the sake of choosing one, I'll go with Sam Smith's "Writing's on the Wall" because James Bond songs have a history of doing well at the Oscars.